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577
ABNT20 KNHC 181139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto, located over the northeastern
Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

...ERNESTO NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 18
 the center of Ernesto was located near 51.9, -20.0
 with movement ENE at 35 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018  

763 
WTNT35 KNHC 180833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

...ERNESTO NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.9N 20.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM NNE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto was located near latitude 51.9 North, longitude 20.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to continue, and Ernesto should merge with a
frontal zone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018  

762 
WTNT25 KNHC 180833
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.9N  20.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 300SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.9N  20.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 51.2N  22.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.5N  13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 55.0N   5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.9N  20.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018  

808 
WTNT45 KNHC 180834
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation
is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto
has become a post-tropical cyclone.  The system could still produce
35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to
slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland
and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical
cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland
and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion
should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and
wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met
Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued
by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 51.9N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  18/1800Z 53.5N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  19/0600Z 55.0N   5.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018


780 
FONT15 KNHC 180833
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 51.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 08:35:48 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 09:22:07 GMT